Post by atrain24 on Apr 2, 2016 0:44:11 GMT
It’s been a while since I have written a detailed opinion piece and the mood struck me today, and what better topic to write about then the one that seemingly won’t die among the hockey media and fans, who should win this year’s Norris trophy, Erik Karlsson or Drew Doughty?
As an admitted Sens fan, I am absolutely unable to say that I am entirely unbiased in this debate. That being said, I’d like to think that in the face of a convincing, subjective argument, I could overcome that bias and think critically about the issue and come to a logical conclusion (don’t we all though?). However, someone else can make the arguments for Doughty, as I will simply fight the inexplicable wave of support that Doughty seems to gotten recently and try to argue as to why this debate should not even be happening… Karlsson is clearly the deserving Norris trophy winner this season.
Firstly, let’s establish that the Norris trophy is presented to, as per the NHL’s definition, "the defense player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position". This is a definition that has not changed since the award’s inception in 1953 (notice the term all-round, rather then the “all-around” variant more commonly used now), about 15 years before Bobby Orr re-defined the role that a defenseman could play on the ice. Regardless, the award does not discriminate one way or another versus defensive or offensive ability, but “all-round” ability. The fact that the position is called “defense” does not place more importance on that side of the play then the offensive side. It should be awarded to the best player who happens to play the position of defense.
The penchant has been to award the trophy to higher scoring defenseman over the years, going to a defenseman who finished outside of the top 5 in defense scoring only twice in the last 20 years. Is this fair? Maybe, maybe not, but as most have come to admit that the best defence is a good offense, or at least that good offence, in and of itself, is a good defence (seeing as how to other team can’t score if you have the puck), I tend to think that is a fair reflection of the best defenseman in the game. It’s not automatically awarded to the top scoring defenseman (only 7 times in the last 20 years did the highest scoring defenseman win it), so the argument that some writers make it a defenseman’s Art Ross hardly holds water.
To start off the actual debate, I’m going to make a bold statement… Drew Doughty is not a good defenseman. He is a great defenseman. Matter of fact he is probably among the top 3 defenseman in the world (probably even in the universe). These debates often turn into proponents of one defenseman bashing the other until they appear to be horrible defensemen, but here is a radical idea… maybe both Doughty and Karlsson are amazing defensemen. That being said, this isn’t AA Bantam House League hockey, where all players get medals and the same player can’t win more then one trophy at the year-end banquet in the local bingo hall. The trophy goes to one defenseman, whomever happens to be the best that year. If two are close, the fact one already has won the trophy is not an argument that can be made to give it to the other, so please let’s cool it with the “Doughty is due” talk, because:
A) He is not, per a great piece here by Down Goes Brown,
B) Even if he were, it’s not an argument that can be used to determine who the best defenseman is, and
C) Even if he were, and it was an acceptable argument, Doughty is 26 years old, he still has plenty of opportunities to win one of these things, (Hell, Nik Lidstrom, arguably the 2nd best defenseman in history, didn’t win one until he was 31). Let’s not give him a lifetime achievement award just yet.
(Voice in my head): Hey idiot, if we are debating the two players, why don’t we compare the two?. Good idea.
Karlsson:
78gp 15g-63a-78pts, E, 50pim, 29:03toi/g, 83hits, 165blocks, 93gva, 55tka, 1:16shtoi/g
1599cf, 1504ca, 51.5cf%, 7.1cf%reltm
Doughty:
77gp 14g-35a-49pts, +25, 48pim, 28:00toi/g, 117hits, 98blocks, 90gva, 8tka, 2:55shtoi/g
1662cf, 1162ca, 58.9cf%, 4.9cf%reltm
The offensive side of the ledger here is hilariously one sided. With 4 games remaining, Karlsson has already equaled his career high of 78 points, tying himself for the 3rd highest single season point total by a defenseman since 2000, and with only 3 points in his final four games, he will own the best mark this millennium. As has been widely reported, he will be the first defenseman to lead the league in assists since Bobby Orr, and he is likely to finish in the top 5 in scoring overall for this season. Karlsson has more even strength points then Doughty has total points. And none of this even touches on how amazing a season he is having if you adjust for era. I could go on, but what’s the point. We all know that Karlsson is miles ahead of Doughty offensively.
Defensively, the common perception is that Karlsson is horrible in his own end and that Doughty sacrifices offense for his other-worldly defense, but the individual numbers don’t exactly bear that out.
Assuming for a minute that +/- is an effective stat that accurately portrays a player’s overall play (which it isn’t and doesn’t), it would seem Doughty has a clear edge here. He is a +25 player and Karlsson is an Even player. However, what is more impressive, being a +25 on a team that has a +31 goal differential, or being an Even player on a team that has a -42 goal differential? Relative to their team, who is putting up a better goal differential here? To consider +/- without factoring in the quality of the team around the player makes a wildly inaccurate stat even more hopeless.
Both players are penalized at roughly the same rate, one plays slightly more per game then the other, the other hits slightly more the first. Then it gets interesting.
One player who supposedly can’t play defense (Karlsson) not only leads the other in blocked shots, The de facto stat used to justify not only the existence, but idolization, of “defensive defensemen” such as Kris Russell and Dan Girardi in recent years, but ranks 11th in the league in the stat, well ahead of not only Doughty, but also the likes of Shea Weber, Nik Hjalmarsson, Brent Seabrook, Ryan McDonagh, Victor Hedman and the list goes on… Pretty sure you can’t give credit to Girardi and Russell for their blocked shots without acknowledging Karlsson’s totals.
One of the things the Doughty camp like to hammer home is the amount of times that Karlsson turns the puck over. Ignoring for a minute that the NHL’s Giveaways leaderboard reads like a who’s-who of talented, creative puck movers (it stands to reason that the talented players that most often have the puck on their sticks will inevitably turn it over most often as well), Doughty only has 3 fewer giveaways then Karlsson, and he does not handle the puck nearly as much as Karlsson does. Ignoring for a minute that for every play where Karlsson turns the puck over (which is apparently 93), there are probably two or three plays that are created by his unique vision that are successful at creating a scoring chance, the sheer amount of Takeaways that Karlsson has compared to Doughty (55 v. 8) gives Karlsson a net turnover rate (takeaways-giveaways) of -38 compared to Doughty’s - 82. Hardly seems like Doughty is better able to manage the puck in any or all of the three zones better then Karlsson.
The Doughty camp certainly has the edge in the Penalty Killing department. Tough, unlike most would have you believe, Karlsson actually does kill penalties (just not as the first, or hell, even second, option), but Doughty does kill more. I could argue that, when you have a player who is as dominant at 5v5 and on the PP as Karlsson is, it is pointless to have him kill penalties at the expense of having him on the ice in those situations (after all, a player can only play so many minutes and still be effective), but hey, if Team Doughty wants to make this, what essentially boils down a time on ice allocation from the coach that the players themselves have little to no ability to control, their crowning argument, so be it.
This brings us to the advanced stats. Again Doughty holds a hell of an edge here, the numbers cannot be argued. The interpretation of what those numbers mean, however, can be viewed through different lenses. Just like in the flawed +/-, Corsi stats (essentially +/- only with shots rather then goals) depend so much on the quality of the team around the player. Of course Doughty has better Corsi For, Corsi Against and Corsi For % stats then Karlsson does, because the Kings have better CF, CA and CF% then the Senators do. To this point, Karlsson has a significantly higher Corsi For % Relative to Teamates then Doughty does, specifically because of how much better Karlsson is relative to his teammates.
At this point I will acknowledge that there are huge shortcomings in the current collection of statistics to accurately portray defensive play. There are no current stats, advanced or otherwise, for how effective a defenceman is at gap control, their ability to deter a scoring chance through good positioning or their ability to effectively counter a forecheck and exit the zone with possession, so you can’t wholly rely on stats for an analysis like this. What this analysis is meant to portray is twofold:
A) That those that report that Karlsson is an “offenceman” who is only out there to get points and not play defence are in fact wrong (not only about the absurd nature of their argument, but that, even if their premise was correct, this would still not be the case), and,
B) That, while Doughty is slightly better defensively then Karlsson is, the gap between them defensively is not nearly as wide as the gap between them offensively.
With this being the case, at least in my opinion, there is no possible way to vote for Doughty over Karlsson for the Norris Trophy is one were to vote as the crieteria demands. Karlsson is without a doubt, at least this season, a better “all-round” player then Doughty is. Any other argument, about Doughty being due, about Karlsson not being able to win it because his team is horrible defensively, or about Karlsson not deserving it because his team didn’t make it to the playoffs should be inconsequential.
Now that I have sounded off, I’d love to see someone post a counter-argument in favour of Doughty in a separate thread, or even for anyone who’d like to share their opinion on this debate in this thread… much as I love writing these, I love seeing what others think just as much… so, what say you?
As an admitted Sens fan, I am absolutely unable to say that I am entirely unbiased in this debate. That being said, I’d like to think that in the face of a convincing, subjective argument, I could overcome that bias and think critically about the issue and come to a logical conclusion (don’t we all though?). However, someone else can make the arguments for Doughty, as I will simply fight the inexplicable wave of support that Doughty seems to gotten recently and try to argue as to why this debate should not even be happening… Karlsson is clearly the deserving Norris trophy winner this season.
Firstly, let’s establish that the Norris trophy is presented to, as per the NHL’s definition, "the defense player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position". This is a definition that has not changed since the award’s inception in 1953 (notice the term all-round, rather then the “all-around” variant more commonly used now), about 15 years before Bobby Orr re-defined the role that a defenseman could play on the ice. Regardless, the award does not discriminate one way or another versus defensive or offensive ability, but “all-round” ability. The fact that the position is called “defense” does not place more importance on that side of the play then the offensive side. It should be awarded to the best player who happens to play the position of defense.
The penchant has been to award the trophy to higher scoring defenseman over the years, going to a defenseman who finished outside of the top 5 in defense scoring only twice in the last 20 years. Is this fair? Maybe, maybe not, but as most have come to admit that the best defence is a good offense, or at least that good offence, in and of itself, is a good defence (seeing as how to other team can’t score if you have the puck), I tend to think that is a fair reflection of the best defenseman in the game. It’s not automatically awarded to the top scoring defenseman (only 7 times in the last 20 years did the highest scoring defenseman win it), so the argument that some writers make it a defenseman’s Art Ross hardly holds water.
To start off the actual debate, I’m going to make a bold statement… Drew Doughty is not a good defenseman. He is a great defenseman. Matter of fact he is probably among the top 3 defenseman in the world (probably even in the universe). These debates often turn into proponents of one defenseman bashing the other until they appear to be horrible defensemen, but here is a radical idea… maybe both Doughty and Karlsson are amazing defensemen. That being said, this isn’t AA Bantam House League hockey, where all players get medals and the same player can’t win more then one trophy at the year-end banquet in the local bingo hall. The trophy goes to one defenseman, whomever happens to be the best that year. If two are close, the fact one already has won the trophy is not an argument that can be made to give it to the other, so please let’s cool it with the “Doughty is due” talk, because:
A) He is not, per a great piece here by Down Goes Brown,
B) Even if he were, it’s not an argument that can be used to determine who the best defenseman is, and
C) Even if he were, and it was an acceptable argument, Doughty is 26 years old, he still has plenty of opportunities to win one of these things, (Hell, Nik Lidstrom, arguably the 2nd best defenseman in history, didn’t win one until he was 31). Let’s not give him a lifetime achievement award just yet.
(Voice in my head): Hey idiot, if we are debating the two players, why don’t we compare the two?. Good idea.
Karlsson:
78gp 15g-63a-78pts, E, 50pim, 29:03toi/g, 83hits, 165blocks, 93gva, 55tka, 1:16shtoi/g
1599cf, 1504ca, 51.5cf%, 7.1cf%reltm
Doughty:
77gp 14g-35a-49pts, +25, 48pim, 28:00toi/g, 117hits, 98blocks, 90gva, 8tka, 2:55shtoi/g
1662cf, 1162ca, 58.9cf%, 4.9cf%reltm
The offensive side of the ledger here is hilariously one sided. With 4 games remaining, Karlsson has already equaled his career high of 78 points, tying himself for the 3rd highest single season point total by a defenseman since 2000, and with only 3 points in his final four games, he will own the best mark this millennium. As has been widely reported, he will be the first defenseman to lead the league in assists since Bobby Orr, and he is likely to finish in the top 5 in scoring overall for this season. Karlsson has more even strength points then Doughty has total points. And none of this even touches on how amazing a season he is having if you adjust for era. I could go on, but what’s the point. We all know that Karlsson is miles ahead of Doughty offensively.
Defensively, the common perception is that Karlsson is horrible in his own end and that Doughty sacrifices offense for his other-worldly defense, but the individual numbers don’t exactly bear that out.
Assuming for a minute that +/- is an effective stat that accurately portrays a player’s overall play (which it isn’t and doesn’t), it would seem Doughty has a clear edge here. He is a +25 player and Karlsson is an Even player. However, what is more impressive, being a +25 on a team that has a +31 goal differential, or being an Even player on a team that has a -42 goal differential? Relative to their team, who is putting up a better goal differential here? To consider +/- without factoring in the quality of the team around the player makes a wildly inaccurate stat even more hopeless.
Both players are penalized at roughly the same rate, one plays slightly more per game then the other, the other hits slightly more the first. Then it gets interesting.
One player who supposedly can’t play defense (Karlsson) not only leads the other in blocked shots, The de facto stat used to justify not only the existence, but idolization, of “defensive defensemen” such as Kris Russell and Dan Girardi in recent years, but ranks 11th in the league in the stat, well ahead of not only Doughty, but also the likes of Shea Weber, Nik Hjalmarsson, Brent Seabrook, Ryan McDonagh, Victor Hedman and the list goes on… Pretty sure you can’t give credit to Girardi and Russell for their blocked shots without acknowledging Karlsson’s totals.
One of the things the Doughty camp like to hammer home is the amount of times that Karlsson turns the puck over. Ignoring for a minute that the NHL’s Giveaways leaderboard reads like a who’s-who of talented, creative puck movers (it stands to reason that the talented players that most often have the puck on their sticks will inevitably turn it over most often as well), Doughty only has 3 fewer giveaways then Karlsson, and he does not handle the puck nearly as much as Karlsson does. Ignoring for a minute that for every play where Karlsson turns the puck over (which is apparently 93), there are probably two or three plays that are created by his unique vision that are successful at creating a scoring chance, the sheer amount of Takeaways that Karlsson has compared to Doughty (55 v. 8) gives Karlsson a net turnover rate (takeaways-giveaways) of -38 compared to Doughty’s - 82. Hardly seems like Doughty is better able to manage the puck in any or all of the three zones better then Karlsson.
The Doughty camp certainly has the edge in the Penalty Killing department. Tough, unlike most would have you believe, Karlsson actually does kill penalties (just not as the first, or hell, even second, option), but Doughty does kill more. I could argue that, when you have a player who is as dominant at 5v5 and on the PP as Karlsson is, it is pointless to have him kill penalties at the expense of having him on the ice in those situations (after all, a player can only play so many minutes and still be effective), but hey, if Team Doughty wants to make this, what essentially boils down a time on ice allocation from the coach that the players themselves have little to no ability to control, their crowning argument, so be it.
This brings us to the advanced stats. Again Doughty holds a hell of an edge here, the numbers cannot be argued. The interpretation of what those numbers mean, however, can be viewed through different lenses. Just like in the flawed +/-, Corsi stats (essentially +/- only with shots rather then goals) depend so much on the quality of the team around the player. Of course Doughty has better Corsi For, Corsi Against and Corsi For % stats then Karlsson does, because the Kings have better CF, CA and CF% then the Senators do. To this point, Karlsson has a significantly higher Corsi For % Relative to Teamates then Doughty does, specifically because of how much better Karlsson is relative to his teammates.
At this point I will acknowledge that there are huge shortcomings in the current collection of statistics to accurately portray defensive play. There are no current stats, advanced or otherwise, for how effective a defenceman is at gap control, their ability to deter a scoring chance through good positioning or their ability to effectively counter a forecheck and exit the zone with possession, so you can’t wholly rely on stats for an analysis like this. What this analysis is meant to portray is twofold:
A) That those that report that Karlsson is an “offenceman” who is only out there to get points and not play defence are in fact wrong (not only about the absurd nature of their argument, but that, even if their premise was correct, this would still not be the case), and,
B) That, while Doughty is slightly better defensively then Karlsson is, the gap between them defensively is not nearly as wide as the gap between them offensively.
With this being the case, at least in my opinion, there is no possible way to vote for Doughty over Karlsson for the Norris Trophy is one were to vote as the crieteria demands. Karlsson is without a doubt, at least this season, a better “all-round” player then Doughty is. Any other argument, about Doughty being due, about Karlsson not being able to win it because his team is horrible defensively, or about Karlsson not deserving it because his team didn’t make it to the playoffs should be inconsequential.
Now that I have sounded off, I’d love to see someone post a counter-argument in favour of Doughty in a separate thread, or even for anyone who’d like to share their opinion on this debate in this thread… much as I love writing these, I love seeing what others think just as much… so, what say you?
