Anaheim fixes the Edmonton Oilers
Feb 26, 2016 23:08:36 GMT
Ottawa Senators, Toronto Maple Leafs, and 2 more like this
Post by atrain24 on Feb 26, 2016 23:08:36 GMT
First of all, I have to give Toronto Maple Leafs credit for a great idea. This was tons of fun and I'm probably going to steal the idea and try to "fix" some other teams in the coming weeks.
Before I begin, I should mention that I am in no way a fan of the Oilers or follow them even remotely closely. These ideas are what I would do based on what little knowledge I can gleam from various news stories, highlight packages and the inferences I can make given the stats. Some of what I will suggest may have already been tried and didn't work, some of it may be new, but to me, they seem like logical moves to make.
***LONG POST WARNING - 1400 words on the Oilers' problems is probably not enough, but that's how long this is***
Let's get this thing started!
Identifying the problems - short term problems
- Obviously, the defense and goaltending need to be improved
- Lack of prominent, productive veteran forwards
Identifying the problems - long term problems
- Losing culture may have seeped into the fabric of the locker room, Ron Wilson's infamous "Blue-and-white Disease".
- Defense and Goaltending need to be improved (short and long term problem)
- Potential problem with a lack of balance in salary cap space allocation (too many forwards making too much money, preventing the team from investing in defenseman and goaltending)
To action between now and the trade deadline
- Trade one of the core forwards for immediate blueline help.
There are three reasons to trade one of your core forwards. Firstly, and more obviously, you need to give up something good to get something good. Trading Purcell or Yakupov and a pick is not going to get you the type of defenseman that you need. Secondly, at some point someone will have to move for cap reasons. In 2018-19, Hall, RNH, Eberle and Pouliot will still be on the books for a total of 22 million, and McDavid and Draisaitl will be in their first year of post ELC deals (likely a combined 13-16 million, depending on their production and the cap), that's potentially 38 million on 6 forwards, with another star forward (drafted this offseason) about to leave his ELC the following year. It's too much to invest what will likely be close to 50% of your cap space (obviously depends on where the cap is) on 6 forwards. So someone will have to move at some point. Finally, I think it is important to trade one of the core forwards to send a message to those that will remain that the status quo is not acceptable and that there are consequences for losing as much as they have. Not enough of a reason in and of itsself to move a star forward, but an important step in trying to fix what appears to be a culture where losing is a fact of life.
You obviously can't move Hall or McDavid, as they are likely long term top 8 players in the NHL at their position. That leaves you with one of RNH, Eberle or Draisaitl. Because Draisaitl has not been a part of the losing culture for as long as the other two, I'd hold onto him and move one of Eberle or RNH. It would all depend on what kind of return I could get for each player, but my preference would be to move Eberle, keep RNH and move Draisaitl to the wing.
To find a match, you've got to look at where the best fit is, and for that, you need a contending team with enough cap space to take on a contract with some term left, in need of offense and with a surplus at defense. Though I hate to move him in the division, the obvious fit here is Anaheim. I doubt I can get Lindholm, Vatanen is too one-dimensional on offense and Theodore is too young, so I target Fowler (who has been rumored to move from Anaheim in the past). In a perfect world, I’d try to get a little extra value rather than a straight one for one deal, preferably a veteran forward who is defensively responsible and has good possession numbers.
To Anaheim: Jordan Eberle, Eric Gryba
To Edmonton: Cam Fowler, Andrew Cogliano
- I would also trade, or attempt to trade pending UFAs Teddy Purcell and Nikita Nikitin, offering to hold salary on both to facilitate a trade. Both could be moved for futures.
To Florida: Teddy Purcell (hold salary if I need to, but Florida is not a cap team, so I doubt it’s required)
To Edmonton: 2016 3rd round pick, conditional 5th round pick.
I am unable to move Nikitin (even in my dream, it’s not possible).
- I absolutely do not trade Yakupov and Schultz (not yet anyway).
To action between after the trade deadline and the end of the season
- I immediately put in a plan to pump-and-dump Yakupov and Schultz in the offseason. By stapling Yakupov to McDavid’s wing in prime offensive minutes and Schultz on the 2nd pair with Fowler in sheltered minutes, I hope to turn what’s left of their seasons around enough to drastically increase their perceived value around the league.
Yakupov has the skill to keep up with McDavid and will collect points simply by keeping his stick on the ice around McDavid. The hope is that he gets his confidence up to maybe even start to contribute on his own before the end of the season. If he can put up a good 20 game stretch with McDavid, his stock should rise in the trade market.
I would give Schultz the Phaneuf treatment. Pair him with the best possession defenseman on your team in sheltered minutes (as much offensive zone time as possible, no facing top lines), playing them with the McDavid line as much as possible and coaching Fowler to stay back in support, hopefully Schultz will limit the amount of blunders he makes in the defensive zone (by spending as little time there as possible) and producing offensively, he can improve his stock as well.
Some may think the pump and dump would not work, but I think NHL GMs are like Mulder and Scully, they want to believe. It worked with Phaneuf in Toronto, so I am sure that some of the more gullible, less analytics versed teams would take a flyer on one of these improving young players.
To action in the offseason
Hopefully the values of Yakupov and Schultz have increased enough to permit the following trades to happen.
Credit to Toronto Maple Leafs , he was right that Hartnell is just the type of player the Oilers would need, so I will target him as well. Columbus seems to be in constant need of defenseman, so I would offer them a rejuvenated Schultz as well as my 2017 2nd round pick for the aging forward.
To Edmonton: Hartnell
To Coumbus: Schultz, Edm 2nd round pick 2017
I am hoping to turn Yakupov into another defenseman, so I will target a team that will likely be in a position where they need to make some drastic changes. Unless San Jose goes deep in these playoffs, I think the management there will finally try to move on from what they have, and with aging forwards in Thornton and Marleau, with Pavelski already on the wrong side of 30, I think they may have some interest in Yakupov.
To San Jose: Yakupov
To Edmonton: Braun
At the draft, use what will likely be a top 3 pick (if the team finishes 30th, the worst pick they could have is 4th overall) on one of Austin Matthews, Jesse Puljujarvi or Patrick Laine. Priotize all other picks on defenseman or goaltenders, as long as they are relatively close to Best Player Available.
Let Kassian, Nilsson and Nikitin walk in the offseason. Try to move out Hendricks for any return.
In free Agency I would target a veteran middle six winger, skilled enough to keep up with the 2nd line forwards if he needs to, but capable of producing away from top talent if needed, and 1a/1b goaltender in free agency. Given the extension that Talbot received, there's really no moving on from him at this point, so the best bet seems to be to get a decent competition going in the hopes of getting two good goaltenders rather then one great one.
Sign one of James Reimer, Cam Ward or Jonas Hiller (in that order of preference) to a reasonable, 2-3 year deal worth 2-3 million per year. Sign one of Troy Brouwer, Lee Stempniak or Kris Versteeg to a 2-3 year deal worth 3-3.5 million per year. In a vacuum these may seem a little low and these players may not want to come to Edmonton if they had the choice, but as we saw last year, veterans are starting to get squeezed out if they try to push for too much and the stagnating cap will make the desirable locations harder to get into. Also, the draw of playing with McDavid will probably help offset the thought of having to live in Edmonton. I think these contracts are within the realm of possibility.
So there you have it. For those that made it this far... what do you think?
Before I begin, I should mention that I am in no way a fan of the Oilers or follow them even remotely closely. These ideas are what I would do based on what little knowledge I can gleam from various news stories, highlight packages and the inferences I can make given the stats. Some of what I will suggest may have already been tried and didn't work, some of it may be new, but to me, they seem like logical moves to make.
***LONG POST WARNING - 1400 words on the Oilers' problems is probably not enough, but that's how long this is***
Let's get this thing started!
Identifying the problems - short term problems
- Obviously, the defense and goaltending need to be improved
- Lack of prominent, productive veteran forwards
Identifying the problems - long term problems
- Losing culture may have seeped into the fabric of the locker room, Ron Wilson's infamous "Blue-and-white Disease".
- Defense and Goaltending need to be improved (short and long term problem)
- Potential problem with a lack of balance in salary cap space allocation (too many forwards making too much money, preventing the team from investing in defenseman and goaltending)
To action between now and the trade deadline
- Trade one of the core forwards for immediate blueline help.
There are three reasons to trade one of your core forwards. Firstly, and more obviously, you need to give up something good to get something good. Trading Purcell or Yakupov and a pick is not going to get you the type of defenseman that you need. Secondly, at some point someone will have to move for cap reasons. In 2018-19, Hall, RNH, Eberle and Pouliot will still be on the books for a total of 22 million, and McDavid and Draisaitl will be in their first year of post ELC deals (likely a combined 13-16 million, depending on their production and the cap), that's potentially 38 million on 6 forwards, with another star forward (drafted this offseason) about to leave his ELC the following year. It's too much to invest what will likely be close to 50% of your cap space (obviously depends on where the cap is) on 6 forwards. So someone will have to move at some point. Finally, I think it is important to trade one of the core forwards to send a message to those that will remain that the status quo is not acceptable and that there are consequences for losing as much as they have. Not enough of a reason in and of itsself to move a star forward, but an important step in trying to fix what appears to be a culture where losing is a fact of life.
You obviously can't move Hall or McDavid, as they are likely long term top 8 players in the NHL at their position. That leaves you with one of RNH, Eberle or Draisaitl. Because Draisaitl has not been a part of the losing culture for as long as the other two, I'd hold onto him and move one of Eberle or RNH. It would all depend on what kind of return I could get for each player, but my preference would be to move Eberle, keep RNH and move Draisaitl to the wing.
To find a match, you've got to look at where the best fit is, and for that, you need a contending team with enough cap space to take on a contract with some term left, in need of offense and with a surplus at defense. Though I hate to move him in the division, the obvious fit here is Anaheim. I doubt I can get Lindholm, Vatanen is too one-dimensional on offense and Theodore is too young, so I target Fowler (who has been rumored to move from Anaheim in the past). In a perfect world, I’d try to get a little extra value rather than a straight one for one deal, preferably a veteran forward who is defensively responsible and has good possession numbers.
To Anaheim: Jordan Eberle, Eric Gryba
To Edmonton: Cam Fowler, Andrew Cogliano
- I would also trade, or attempt to trade pending UFAs Teddy Purcell and Nikita Nikitin, offering to hold salary on both to facilitate a trade. Both could be moved for futures.
To Florida: Teddy Purcell (hold salary if I need to, but Florida is not a cap team, so I doubt it’s required)
To Edmonton: 2016 3rd round pick, conditional 5th round pick.
I am unable to move Nikitin (even in my dream, it’s not possible).
- I absolutely do not trade Yakupov and Schultz (not yet anyway).
To action between after the trade deadline and the end of the season
- I immediately put in a plan to pump-and-dump Yakupov and Schultz in the offseason. By stapling Yakupov to McDavid’s wing in prime offensive minutes and Schultz on the 2nd pair with Fowler in sheltered minutes, I hope to turn what’s left of their seasons around enough to drastically increase their perceived value around the league.
Yakupov has the skill to keep up with McDavid and will collect points simply by keeping his stick on the ice around McDavid. The hope is that he gets his confidence up to maybe even start to contribute on his own before the end of the season. If he can put up a good 20 game stretch with McDavid, his stock should rise in the trade market.
I would give Schultz the Phaneuf treatment. Pair him with the best possession defenseman on your team in sheltered minutes (as much offensive zone time as possible, no facing top lines), playing them with the McDavid line as much as possible and coaching Fowler to stay back in support, hopefully Schultz will limit the amount of blunders he makes in the defensive zone (by spending as little time there as possible) and producing offensively, he can improve his stock as well.
Post Deadline Roster
Pouliot – McDavid – Yakupov
Hall – RNH – Draisaitl
Kassian – Cogliano – Korpikoski
Letestu – Lander – Hendricks
Sekera – Nurse
Fowler – Schultz
Klefbom – Fayne
Talbot
Nilsson
Pouliot – McDavid – Yakupov
Hall – RNH – Draisaitl
Kassian – Cogliano – Korpikoski
Letestu – Lander – Hendricks
Sekera – Nurse
Fowler – Schultz
Klefbom – Fayne
Talbot
Nilsson
Some may think the pump and dump would not work, but I think NHL GMs are like Mulder and Scully, they want to believe. It worked with Phaneuf in Toronto, so I am sure that some of the more gullible, less analytics versed teams would take a flyer on one of these improving young players.
To action in the offseason
Hopefully the values of Yakupov and Schultz have increased enough to permit the following trades to happen.
Credit to Toronto Maple Leafs , he was right that Hartnell is just the type of player the Oilers would need, so I will target him as well. Columbus seems to be in constant need of defenseman, so I would offer them a rejuvenated Schultz as well as my 2017 2nd round pick for the aging forward.
To Edmonton: Hartnell
To Coumbus: Schultz, Edm 2nd round pick 2017
I am hoping to turn Yakupov into another defenseman, so I will target a team that will likely be in a position where they need to make some drastic changes. Unless San Jose goes deep in these playoffs, I think the management there will finally try to move on from what they have, and with aging forwards in Thornton and Marleau, with Pavelski already on the wrong side of 30, I think they may have some interest in Yakupov.
To San Jose: Yakupov
To Edmonton: Braun
At the draft, use what will likely be a top 3 pick (if the team finishes 30th, the worst pick they could have is 4th overall) on one of Austin Matthews, Jesse Puljujarvi or Patrick Laine. Priotize all other picks on defenseman or goaltenders, as long as they are relatively close to Best Player Available.
Let Kassian, Nilsson and Nikitin walk in the offseason. Try to move out Hendricks for any return.
In free Agency I would target a veteran middle six winger, skilled enough to keep up with the 2nd line forwards if he needs to, but capable of producing away from top talent if needed, and 1a/1b goaltender in free agency. Given the extension that Talbot received, there's really no moving on from him at this point, so the best bet seems to be to get a decent competition going in the hopes of getting two good goaltenders rather then one great one.
Sign one of James Reimer, Cam Ward or Jonas Hiller (in that order of preference) to a reasonable, 2-3 year deal worth 2-3 million per year. Sign one of Troy Brouwer, Lee Stempniak or Kris Versteeg to a 2-3 year deal worth 3-3.5 million per year. In a vacuum these may seem a little low and these players may not want to come to Edmonton if they had the choice, but as we saw last year, veterans are starting to get squeezed out if they try to push for too much and the stagnating cap will make the desirable locations harder to get into. Also, the draw of playing with McDavid will probably help offset the thought of having to live in Edmonton. I think these contracts are within the realm of possibility.
2016-17 Roster – Cap Hit of 64.433 Million
Hall (A) – McDavid – Hartnell (C)
Draisaitl – RNH (A) – Brouwer
Puljujarvi – Cogliano – Pouliot
Letestu – Lander – Korpikoski
Fowler – Nurse
Sekera – Braun
Klefbom – Fayne
Talbot
Reimer
Hall (A) – McDavid – Hartnell (C)
Draisaitl – RNH (A) – Brouwer
Puljujarvi – Cogliano – Pouliot
Letestu – Lander – Korpikoski
Fowler – Nurse
Sekera – Braun
Klefbom – Fayne
Talbot
Reimer
So there you have it. For those that made it this far... what do you think?
